Summary:

Growth. GDP is expected to have expanded by 3.1% in 2018. Household consumption and agriculture have been big contributors while the restrictions on trade and power from the conflict in Donbass have held back growth. This year’s growth is expected to be a little less due to the elections.

Monetary. Inflation rose to 8% in November because of the near 24% rise in gas prices (IMF requirement). The National Bank is still confident that it can get the rate back to 6% by end-2020. Because of the inflation spike, the NBU policy rate was increased to 18% in September. That should be a peak and fall this year. But the NBU will move cautiously and slowly.

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