Summary:

This year growth is expected to pick up and the data from 1H19 suggests a better performance than the 4% expected by the Economy Ministry. GDP grew by 5.6% in 1Q19 and by 6.4% in 2Q19. It is, therefore, very likely we will upgrade our forecast for this year when we see the 3Q19 results. The decline in 2020 is more because of the base-effect from this year and the fact that little new investment is expected in either extractive industries or other sectors of the economy.

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