Summary:

Where the price of oil trades in 2016‐18 is one of the important factors that will determine what happens in the Russian economy, the relative performance of capital markets and, over time, social and political stability. In Russia oil is still the base upon which all else is built. This is the first part of our 2016 Russia Preview Trilogy. Part 2 looks at how the oil price scenarios, described here, may affect the economy and political actions, while Part 3 looks at the implications for capital markets and investors.

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