Politics clouds forecasts. Geopolitics continues to make economic forecasting difficult. It is expected that EU leaders will fully renew sanctions for either three or six months at next week’s summit. Investors hope to hear that the EU may ‘reward’ Moscow if progress continues in eastern Ukraine over the next six months. Our base case forecasts assume no sanctions change until August. The very dangerous events in Syria add additional uncertainty when looking at 2016‐18 forecasts.