Summary:

A tough 1H in store. The mood in Russia is poor. Confidence indicators are weak for both consumers and companies and economic indicators are falling. GDP growth in 1H will be close to 1.0%, at best.

Revised forecasts and scenarios. In this report, we revise some macro forecasts for 2019-21 and set out the different scenarios that may result in a worse or better result in the review period.

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