Browsing documents in Macro Monthly
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Will 2018 prove to be a turning point?
2017 growth at 1.5%. Rosstat estimates last year’s GDP growth at 1.5%. A weakening industrial production trend was offset by stronger growth in agriculture and a recovery in retail sales. VEB estimates Q4 growth at 0.6%, down from +1.8% in Q3 and 2.5% in Q2.
Will politics, disruptions and the dollar continue to drive oil?
OPEC-Russia deal created a favorable backdrop … The price of Brent fell 16% in the first half of 2017 but rallied 40% through the second half. The continuation of the OPEC-Russia deal plus steadily rising demand, created a favorable backdrop but it was the combination of several other factors which created the price catalyst.
Russia’s Capital Markets in 2018: Riders on the Storm
Well positioned. Russian assets are well positioned to outperform global peers in 2018. For equities whether that means strong price appreciation or another year of flat performance will be determined by the trend in global markets. Russian equity indices will hardly rise against a decline in global markets but should outperform a global rising trend.
Macro-Advisory 2018 Political Outlook
Outlook for 2018. There is no reasonable basis to assume there will be any major changes in Russian politics in 2018. We think there is at best a 25% chance that Putin will use his new mandate to implement the major reforms that Russia needs to move to a better economic growth path. More likely he will choose stability because it is lower risk. Speculation will then move to what happens in 2024. Who will Putin choose to succeed him, will that choice be challenged, and what role will Putin have thereafter?
Russia & CIS Relevant Books 2017: Recommended Reading List
Most useful & interesting books in 2017. The first section of this report lists the most useful (for investors and business managers) books about Russia, the CIS and Central Asia which have been published in 2017 and which offer some insight into either the economy and politics or simply how Russia works. Specifically excluded from this list are most of the “tabloid” books focusing on, e.g. the impending doom of war or simply ranting about why Russia/the CIS is either so bad or so wonderful. We mention just a few which, e.g. attracted media attention.
Russia Macro-Politics December Monthly: Tempered holiday mood
Investors and government are waiting for sanctions. The CAATS act requires that the US government must draw up a list of “Putin’s inner circle” to be sanctioned and to report on the viability of bans on purchases of Russian debt by the end of January 2018. Capital markets are largely flat with low volumes as investors wait to see what happens next in Q1 or 1H18. Russian indices are set to underperform global peers by approximately 30% this year.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly: November 2017-The calm before the … what?
Economic advance continues. The economic recovery continues to strengthen and expand, albeit modestly. September GDP rose 2.4% YoY, bringing the growth for 9M17 to 1.8% YoY. The agriculture sector is a big driver, recording 8.5% growth in September (+4.7% YoY in 9M). There is also a stronger-than-expected recovery in retail sales.
Modest upgrades. Several agencies, such as the World Bank, IMF and Fitch, have modestly upgraded their forecasts for 2017-19. The Economy Ministry is the most bullish but still quite modest, with expected growth rising to 2.3% YoY in 2020.
Russia Macro: Is Moscow facing a winter of “content”?
The underlying economy is doing well, despite the problems in the banking sector
Russia Macro Monthly: How long will the positive momentum last?
Recovery strengthens. Rosstat reported 1H GDP growth of 1.5% and Q2 at 2.7%. The question is whether 2Q was a one-off or a new trend. Confidence numbers suggest recovery has peaked. Official business confidence numbers fell from -1 to -2 in July. The PMI manufacturing index fell, indicating there is still growth, but at a slower rate.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly August 2017
The economic recovery remains solid, with 1H GDP growth reported at 1.6%, ahead of our estimate of 1.4% for the full year. President Trump signed the sanctions bill into law.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly July 2017
GDP growth looks good, but it was boosted by calendar and base effects. The threat of new sanctions remains high.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly June 2017
Senate votes for tougher sanctions. Economic recovery on track