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Macro-Advisory 2018 Political Outlook
Outlook for 2018. There is no reasonable basis to assume there will be any major changes in Russian politics in 2018. We think there is at best a 25% chance that Putin will use his new mandate to implement the major reforms that Russia needs to move to a better economic growth path. More likely he will choose stability because it is lower risk. Speculation will then move to what happens in 2024. Who will Putin choose to succeed him, will that choice be challenged, and what role will Putin have thereafter?
Russia Sanctions Guide: What difference have sanctions made and, is that about to change?
In some ways, sanctions had a beneficial effect, by forcing the Russian government and economy to do more with less. The new move by Congress to codify the sanctions does not change the situation, but brings uncertainty that new sanctions may be imposed, or current ones interpreted more narrowly.
Duma Election Results September 2016
An election foretold
Special Report: Russia’s Political Economy
A new kind of war