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Macro-Advisory 2018 Political Outlook
Outlook for 2018. There is no reasonable basis to assume there will be any major changes in Russian politics in 2018. We think there is at best a 25% chance that Putin will use his new mandate to implement the major reforms that Russia needs to move to a better economic growth path. More likely he will choose stability because it is lower risk. Speculation will then move to what happens in 2024. Who will Putin choose to succeed him, will that choice be challenged, and what role will Putin have thereafter?
Russia Sanctions Guide: What difference have sanctions made and, is that about to change?
In some ways, sanctions had a beneficial effect, by forcing the Russian government and economy to do more with less. The new move by Congress to codify the sanctions does not change the situation, but brings uncertainty that new sanctions may be imposed, or current ones interpreted more narrowly.
Duma Election Results September 2016
Preliminary results suggest that United Russia has increased its domination
of Russia’s lower house of Parliament, and will have over 300 of the 450 seats. Just 48% of the electorate voted. The turnout is exactly in line with the most recent Levada poll. The same poll showed United Russia with 50% of the votes, less than the 54% they got, mainly because of statistical selection bias.
Special Report: Russia’s Political Economy
Russia is in a new kind of war. In the past, if countries disagreed with one another, they sent a gunboat or threatened war. Now they impose economic sanctions. On this basis, Russia is already in some form of war with the West. In a way this is good news, because it makes it less likely there will be an actual physical conflict. All the posturing and aggression can be played out on the economic front.