Ukraine’s economy has now stabilized and is showing a slow but steady recovery. GDP is set to expand by 1.2% this year and by 2.5% next year. That follows a decline of almost 10% in 2015. One of the big success stories has been the large cut in headline inflation from over 43% at the end of last year to under 8% this summer. It is expected that the pace will pick up in the autumn and winter but it should stay close to the NBU’s target of 12% (+/-3%). This has allowed the NBU to cut its refinancing rate from 22% at the start of the year to 15% in mid-September.