Macro Monthly November 2018

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Sanctions reprieve, not a pardon. It is now most unlikely that Russia
will face any major new sanctions from the US before year-end.
Congress has more pressing priorities and the absence of any election
interference allegations reduces the urgency. But key senators have
made clear that there will be new legislation introduced in 2019 and
they will press for more oligarchs and Russian enterprises to be
added to the SDN list.

CBW phase 2. The US State Department has started consultations
with Congress over the phase 2 CBW sanctions. These could come as
early as late November or be delayed by up to 90 days. It is expected
that any additional measures will tend towards the “softer” options.

Pace of growth slows. The first reading of Q3 GDP shows a drop to
1.3% growth from 1.9% in Q2. A decline in agriculture plus the Q2
World Cup effect contributed to the decline.