Russia Macro Monthly February 2019

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A tough 1H in store. The mood in Russia is poor. Confidence indicators are weak for both consumers and companies and economic indicators are falling. GDP growth in 1H will be close to 1.0%, at best.

Revised forecasts and scenarios. In this report, we revise some macro forecasts for 2019-21 and set out the different scenarios that may result in a worse or better result in the review period.

Betting on national projects. The government is “all in” with the US$380 bln National Projects program. It is betting on this as the strategy that will pull the economy out of the slump and into stronger sustainable growth and improved living conditions by 2024.

KPIs for DPMs. Unlike in 2012, this time there is much greater seriousness to the program and preparations have been better. The Deputy PMs, responsible for the program, have KPIs linked to it.