Browsing documents with the theme of Eurasian Economic Union
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Kazakhstan Update – The Twin Peaks Challenge
Strong growth based on oil. Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4% YoY last year (from 1% in 2016) and looks set to replicate that strong growth again this year. The key driver of last year’s recovery and this year’s expected growth is the combination of rising oil output and the oil price recovery.
Macro Monthly – What Difference Do April Sanctions Make?
Sanctions game-changer. The 6 April US sanctions were something of a game-changer as they targeted some oligarchs and their businesses. Investors and businesses are likely to adopt a more cautious approach to Russia for some time until the risk level is better understood.
Will 2018 prove to be a turning point?
2017 growth at 1.5%. Rosstat estimates last year’s GDP growth at 1.5%. A weakening industrial production trend was offset by stronger growth in agriculture and a recovery in retail sales. VEB estimates Q4 growth at 0.6%, down from +1.8% in Q3 and 2.5% in Q2.
Russia Macro-Politics December Monthly: Tempered holiday mood
Investors and government are waiting for sanctions. The CAATS act requires that the US government must draw up a list of “Putin’s inner circle” to be sanctioned and to report on the viability of bans on purchases of Russian debt by the end of January 2018. Capital markets are largely flat with low volumes as investors wait to see what happens next in Q1 or 1H18. Russian indices are set to underperform global peers by approximately 30% this year.
Russia, CIS & Eurasia Books of 2017 Recommended Reading
Russia & CIS Relevant Books 2017: Recommended Reading List
Russian Agriculture Growth: Can Russia feed the world?
The Russian agricultural sector is growing quickly helped by protection from imports and significant investment. It is likely to continue to grow as infrastructure bottlenecks are addressed. This offers significant opportunities for investors as this is one of the few natural resource sectors where foreign investment is encouraged. The government is keen to encourage both exports and processing domestically.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly: November 2017-The calm before the … what?
Economic advance continues. The economic recovery continues to strengthen and expand, albeit modestly. September GDP rose 2.4% YoY, bringing the growth for 9M17 to 1.8% YoY. The agriculture sector is a big driver, recording 8.5% growth in September (+4.7% YoY in 9M). There is also a stronger-than-expected recovery in retail sales.
Modest upgrades. Several agencies, such as the World Bank, IMF and Fitch, have modestly upgraded their forecasts for 2017-19. The Economy Ministry is the most bullish but still quite modest, with expected growth rising to 2.3% YoY in 2020.
Transcript of Macro-Advisory’s 2017 Autumn Briefing
Dr Pankin gave us an overview and answered questions about the Eurasian Investment Bank
Uzbekistan: Playing catch-up is neither a sprint nor a marathon
Uzbekistan is playing catch-up with the rest of the CIS and Eurasia after 25 years of isolation. President Mirziyoyev and his team have moved surprisingly quickly with some key changes that should yield a positive knee-jerk reaction from investors. But the “to-do” list remains long and daunting.
Eurasian Economic Union: Consolidation and Progress Continues
Not much has changed in the EaEU since our last report, but this sort of integration process does not move quickly, as the experience of the EU shows. The EU experience is also important when interpreting intra-EaEU friction, such as that between Russia and Belarus. This is inevitable when countries have diverging bilateral interests. The EaEU exists to create a forum where these can be resolved, but not eradicated. We see a little more flesh on the links between the EaEU and the One Belt One Road strategy, but both projects are moving slowly.