Browsing documents with the theme of Eurasian Economic Union
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Technology Series – Central Asia: Middle Earth is switching on
This is the fourth in a series of introductions to Smart City programs which have been launched, or which are planned, across the CIS-Eurasia region. Other reports in the series look separately at programs in Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasus and Russia. These reports aim only to provide an overview of existing smart city and technology projects and of current and future State plans for developing “e-” and technology projects in each of the countries across the region.
For our clients, Macro-Advisory provides full due-diligence and strategic analysis services, which identify investment and business opportunities across different areas in technology throughout the region.
Ukraine: Hampered by politics and funding
This is the third of a six-part series of introductions to Smart City programs, which have been launched, or which are planned, across the CIS-Eurasia region. Other reports in the series look separately at programs in the Caucuses, Belarus, and Russia and also across the Central Asia region. These reports aim to only provide an overview of existing smart city and technology projects and of current state and future plans for developing “e-” and technology projects in each of the countries across the region.
For clients, Macro-Advisory provides a full due-diligence and strategic analysis service, which identifies investment and business opportunities across different areas of technology throughout the region.
Russia Macro Update: Catching a falling knife
Losing momentum. The Q2 GDP growth indicator was weaker than expected and is consistent with other indicators that show slowing momentum. But we still see no reason to adjust our 1.7% growth forecast for this year.Another sanctions surprise. The latest US sanctions took everybody by surprise and have contributed to further ruble weakness. The risk of additional sanctions, especially the dangerous DESKAA bill now looking for support in Congress, is very high. There is no danger of a financial crisis or a drop in expected growth but the real impact is the drop in investment and FDI (less than US$2 bln in Q2 from over US$12 bln in 2Q17). This badly hurts future growth prospects.
Uzbekistan Update: The newest investment frontier
Waiting for a debut Eurobond. Uzbekistan will issue a debut Eurobond very quickly, once it receives an international credit rating. The process of getting a rating is ongoing and ministers hope it will be completed by the autumn and a debt issue done by the year-end.Possibly US$1 bln issue. The size range indication is US$300 mln to US$1 bln. Neighboring Tajikistan successfully raised US$500 mln last year but US$1 bln would suit Uzbekistan much better. It is on a fast-track reform path and would probably like to make a strong statement on international markets to reflect this.
Uzbekistan Agriculture: Reforms pave way for rapid growth
Important sector. Agriculture accounts for 19% of GDP and 27% of the workforce in Uzbekistan. The sector has been growing at some 6-7% (official figures) per year for the past decade or so.
Large market, strategic position. Uzbekistan has a population of 30 million, the largest in the region, and, as it moves out of isolation, may develop aspirations to become a regional leader in Central Asia.
Kazakhstan Update – The Twin Peaks Challenge
Strong growth based on oil. Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4% YoY last year (from 1% in 2016) and looks set to replicate that strong growth again this year. The key driver of last year’s recovery and this year’s expected growth is the combination of rising oil output and the oil price recovery.
Macro Monthly – What Difference Do April Sanctions Make?
Sanctions game-changer. The 6 April US sanctions were something of a game-changer as they targeted some oligarchs and their businesses. Investors and businesses are likely to adopt a more cautious approach to Russia for some time until the risk level is better understood.
Will 2018 prove to be a turning point?
2017 growth at 1.5%. Rosstat estimates last year’s GDP growth at 1.5%. A weakening industrial production trend was offset by stronger growth in agriculture and a recovery in retail sales. VEB estimates Q4 growth at 0.6%, down from +1.8% in Q3 and 2.5% in Q2.
Russia Macro-Politics December Monthly: Tempered holiday mood
Investors and government are waiting for sanctions. The CAATS act requires that the US government must draw up a list of “Putin’s inner circle” to be sanctioned and to report on the viability of bans on purchases of Russian debt by the end of January 2018. Capital markets are largely flat with low volumes as investors wait to see what happens next in Q1 or 1H18. Russian indices are set to underperform global peers by approximately 30% this year.
Russia, CIS & Eurasia Books of 2017 Recommended Reading
Russia & CIS Relevant Books 2017: Recommended Reading List
Russian Agriculture Growth: Can Russia feed the world?
The Russian agricultural sector is growing quickly helped by protection from imports and significant investment. It is likely to continue to grow as infrastructure bottlenecks are addressed. This offers significant opportunities for investors as this is one of the few natural resource sectors where foreign investment is encouraged. The government is keen to encourage both exports and processing domestically.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly: November 2017-The calm before the … what?
Economic advance continues. The economic recovery continues to strengthen and expand, albeit modestly. September GDP rose 2.4% YoY, bringing the growth for 9M17 to 1.8% YoY. The agriculture sector is a big driver, recording 8.5% growth in September (+4.7% YoY in 9M). There is also a stronger-than-expected recovery in retail sales.
Modest upgrades. Several agencies, such as the World Bank, IMF and Fitch, have modestly upgraded their forecasts for 2017-19. The Economy Ministry is the most bullish but still quite modest, with expected growth rising to 2.3% YoY in 2020.