Browsing documents with the theme of Monthly
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Will politics, disruptions and the dollar continue to drive oil? – February 2018
OPEC-Russia deal created a favorable backdrop The price of Brent fell 16% in the first half of 2017 but rallied 40% through the second half. The continuation of the OPEC-Russia deal plus steadily rising demand, created a favorable backdrop but it was the combination of several other factors which created the price catalyst.
Russia’s Capital Markets in 2018: Riders on the Storm
Well positioned. Russian assets are well positioned to outperform global peers in 2018. For equities whether that means strong price appreciation or another year of flat performance will be determined by the trend in global markets. Russian equity indices will hardly rise against a decline in global markets but should outperform a global rising trend.
Russia Macro-Politics December Monthly: Tempered holiday mood
Investors and government are waiting for sanctions. The CAATS act requires that the US government must draw up a list of “Putin’s inner circle” to be sanctioned and to report on the viability of bans on purchases of Russian debt by the end of January 2018. Capital markets are largely flat with low volumes as investors wait to see what happens next in Q1 or 1H18. Russian indices are set to underperform global peers by approximately 30% this year.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly: November 2017-The calm before the…what?
Economic advance continues. The economic recovery continues to strengthen and expand, albeit modestly. September GDP rose 2.4% YoY, bringing the growth for 9M17 to 1.8% YoY. The agriculture sector is a big driver, recording 8.5% growth in September (+4.7% YoY in 9M). There is also a stronger-than-expected recovery in retail sales.
Modest upgrades. Several agencies, such as the World Bank, IMF and Fitch, have modestly upgraded their forecasts for 2017-19. The Economy Ministry is the most bullish but still quite modest, with expected growth rising to 2.3% YoY in 2020.
Russia Macro: Is Moscow facing a winter of “content”? – October 2017
Another good month. GDP growth was 2.3% in August, up from 1.8% in July. This came from good performances in industry and agriculture, and continuing recovery in the consumer sector. Construction is also strong, up 6.1% in August.
Russia Macro Monthly: How long will the positive momentum last? – September 2017
Recovery strengthens. Rosstat reported 1H GDP growth of 1.5% and Q2 at 2.7%. The question is whether 2Q was a one-off or a new trend. Confidence numbers suggest recovery has peaked. Official business confidence numbers fell from -1 to -2 in July. The PMI manufacturing index fell, indicating there is still growth, but at a slower rate.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly August 2017
Economic recovery is solid. The Economy Ministry expects Q2 GDP growth may be 2.7%, bringing growth for 1H to 1.6% and ahead of consensus for the full year. That is still on the optimistic side. The Gaidar institute forecasts average growth at 1.5% for 2017 & 2018.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly June 2017
Congress pushes ahead with sanctions threat. The big elephant in the room, when it comes to longer-term growth in the economy is the threat of additional US sanctions. Now that the Senate has voted for tougher sanctions, attention will shift to the House of Representatives and then whether President Trump is willing or able to block a sanctions extension. If a tougher sanctions regime is adopted by the US, the EU is not expected to follow but Russia will almost certainly retaliate in some way.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly May 2017
Economy continues to show weak recovery. Sentiment indicators are finally showing improvement to pre-sanctions levels. The outlook is that this recovery will be slow and shallow, with the hope that it will get a boost from a new reform program next year. Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin submitted his plan; the question is how much the government will water it down?
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly April 2017
Leading indicators show recovery. The manufacturing and services PMI continue to confirm an economy in recovery. But there is a gap between the still contracting consumer/construction sectors and the growth from sectors benefiting from the weak ruble.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly March 2017
Good economic news … VEB estimates that the economy grew by 0.8% YoY in January, confirming the expectation that the eight-quarter recession will end this quarter. But it also points to a number of one-off events which were mostly responsible for the strong start.
The Economy Ministry and the Gaidar Institute both issued bullish growth outlooks. However, both assume a rise in investment spending over the medium term and effective policy and regulatory changes. That seems overly optimistic for now.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly February 2017
3Q16 GDP contraction eases. GDP dropped 0.5% YoY in 3Q16, an improvement on the 0.6% YoY fall in 2Q16. The recovery is expected to remain quite shallow for many years.