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Macro-Advisory 2017 Economy Outlook: Preparing for the Next Phase
This is the third of a three-part review of the factors that are expected to drive investor and business confidence and determine the macroeconomic trends in Russia over the next three years. The first note focused on the oil price outlook and the second on expectations for domestic and geopolitics.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly December 2016
Economic and political outlook for Russia improves after the election of Donald Trump as President.
A little more optimism.
The IMF has improved its forecast for 2016 to a 0.6% contraction and is keeping its growth forecast for 2017 at 1.1%. Their 2016 number is in line with our long-held forecast.
Confidence rebounds. The consumer confidence numbers were up sharply in Q3, as were the October PMI manufacturing numbers.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly November 2016
Confidence rebounds. The consumer confidence numbers were up sharply in the third quarter, as were the October PMI manufacturing numbers.
Russia CIS Macro Monthly August 2015
GDP decline. Preliminary estimates indicate that GDP contracted by 4.6% YoY in 2Q15 compared to a fall of 2.2% in 1Q15. This worsening trend is as expected. 3Q data will be just as bad if not marginally worse. However, this second and third quarter dip is still consistent with our forecast for a full year decline of 3.5%.
Russia CIS Macro Monthly November 2015
The macro indicators for September showed tentative improvements, and support the conviction that economic weakness bottomed in July-August. The expectation is that the fourth quarter data, which will start to appear this month, will show further improvement and support optimism for an end to the recession in mid-2016. In a rare piece of good news Russia’s.
ranking in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business survey improved to 51 from 64 previously. That was partly because of changes to the survey methodology (expanded) and also because of improvements by Russia in such areas as the cost and time to access electricity supply.
Russia CIS Macro Monthly February 2016
The new year started with a variation on the themes of 2015: weak oil causing a weak ruble and sanctions uncertainty. This combination will likely continue to dominate sentiment in, and towards, Russia through 1H16 if not the entire year. 1Q is expected to show the worst results for the economy in 2016. Both business and consumer sentiment indicators dropped sharply towards the end of December and again in January. People are becoming more fearful of job and income security and plan to avoid unnecessary spending until conditions improve. Support for President Putin remains strong but now less than 50% of people think the country is heading in the right direction, down from 61% in October.