Browsing documents with the theme of Oil Prices
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Macro Monthly October 2018: Is Russia in the eye of a storm or preparing for a new growth phase?
Waiting for sanctions updates. There is a sense of being in the eye of the storm with regard to sanctions. After the frenzy in August and early September, the situation is now calm. But activity will pick up in November, in the aftermath of the mid-term elections and ahead of the Phase II CBW sanctions decision. We update the current position and highlight some conflicting indicators in this report.
Russia Macro Update: Catching a falling knife
Losing momentum. The Q2 GDP growth indicator was weaker than expected and is consistent with other indicators that show slowing momentum. But we still see no reason to adjust our 1.7% growth forecast for this year.Another sanctions surprise. The latest US sanctions took everybody by surprise and have contributed to further ruble weakness. The risk of additional sanctions, especially the dangerous DESKAA bill now looking for support in Congress, is very high. There is no danger of a financial crisis or a drop in expected growth but the real impact is the drop in investment and FDI (less than US$2 bln in Q2 from over US$12 bln in 2Q17). This badly hurts future growth prospects.
Russia Macro Monthly: Pension Reform and its Discontents
Russia hosts good World Cup. Despite our headline in the June Monthly, Russia’s football team exceeded all expectations. The hosting of the event also confounded critics. However, optimism that this may lead to reform acceleration or, e.g. a much easier tourist regime, and thus boost tourism, is unfounded at this stage.
Pensions reform backlash. Opinion polls show a large majority of Russians are unhappy with the proposal to raise the retirement age. Putin is likely to wait until the extent of public feeling can better be gauged in the autumn before making a final decision. He has never pushed a genuinely unpopular reform because of the instability risk.
Macro-Advisory May 2018 Monthly – Now for The Hard(er) Part
New-old government. As expected, Prime Minister Medvedev is to remain in his job. There are some significant changes amongst deputy PMs, indicating a need for a new approach, which may be interpreted as signaling more spending on health, education and infrastructure.
Need to focus on the economy. Polls show that while people strongly support the president they are increasingly critical of the economic performance. It is clear that if Putin wants to retain public support during this next term, he will need to focus more on the economy.
Kazakhstan refines its oil strategy
Reliance on hydrocarbons is increasing. While the government talks about diversification the reality is much greater emphasis and visible progress in expanding oil and gas activities.
Kashagan output rising steadily. The country produced an average of 1.73 mln barrels of oil per day last year, up by 10.5% from 2016. Most of that extra oil came from the Kashagan field, which finally started producing in late 2016 and will soon plateau at 370,000 barrels per day. Total Kazakhstan production is set to reach at least 2.15 mbpd by 2023. Kazakhstan is out of the OPEC deal.
Russia Macro Monthly: Can continuity lead to change?
In lieu of a concrete election program, the President made a late annual state-of-the-nation speech that laid out a liberal economic vision and tough foreign policy. The latter appears to be more electoral posturing than a major change in nuclear doctrine. We set out the main economic points and those with implication for business opportunities, in this monthly.
Will politics, disruptions and the dollar continue to drive oil?
OPEC-Russia deal created a favorable backdrop … The price of Brent fell 16% in the first half of 2017 but rallied 40% through the second half. The continuation of the OPEC-Russia deal plus steadily rising demand, created a favorable backdrop but it was the combination of several other factors which created the price catalyst.
Macro-Advisory 2018 Political Outlook
Outlook for 2018. There is no reasonable basis to assume there will be any major changes in Russian politics in 2018. We think there is at best a 25% chance that Putin will use his new mandate to implement the major reforms that Russia needs to move to a better economic growth path. More likely he will choose stability because it is lower risk. Speculation will then move to what happens in 2024. Who will Putin choose to succeed him, will that choice be challenged, and what role will Putin have thereafter?
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly: November 2017-The calm before the … what?
Economic advance continues. The economic recovery continues to strengthen and expand, albeit modestly. September GDP rose 2.4% YoY, bringing the growth for 9M17 to 1.8% YoY. The agriculture sector is a big driver, recording 8.5% growth in September (+4.7% YoY in 9M). There is also a stronger-than-expected recovery in retail sales.
Modest upgrades. Several agencies, such as the World Bank, IMF and Fitch, have modestly upgraded their forecasts for 2017-19. The Economy Ministry is the most bullish but still quite modest, with expected growth rising to 2.3% YoY in 2020.
Macro-Advisory Macro Monthly March 2017
Economic performance improves as US Congress considers codifying anti-Russian sanctions into law.
Macro-Advisory 2017 Economy Outlook: Preparing for the Next Phase
Policy will focus on the economy in 2017, with fewer distractions from geopolitics. However there will be no movement on sanctions.
No change in economic performance without change in economic policy
Kazakhstan: 3-D Printing a New Economy
Analysis of the Kazakh government’s reform plan