Browsing documents with the theme of Ukraine
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Ukraine: Hampered by politics and funding
Good planning, poor implementation. Ukraine’s major cities have been planning Smart City projects for many years. But actual progress is slow because of a lack of financial resources and also slow administrative reforms.
Horizon 2020. The major technology improvement program, focusing on the government, and transparency and efficiency in state systems, is an EU-backed US$80 bln program.
Ukraine: An economic & political obstacle course
Strong GDP recovery in 2016. Economic recovery accelerated into the end of last year, GDP expanding by 4.7% YoY in Q4. That brought full-year growth to 2.2%, reversing the near 10% contraction of 2015. That trend continued into 2017 but much of it is based on one-off factors.
Blockade a cause for concern. The trade blockade with Donbass is a concern; if it remains for long enough, it will hurt the economy. 2017 growth scenarios range from 1.5% to 3.0%. We have adopted a cautious approach with 2.1% for 2017, rising to 3.0% in 2018.
Agriculture has been a big winner. Ukraine became the third-largest exporter of agricultural goods to the EU last year. Its grain harvest increased 27.5% YoY in 2016.
State debt at 76% of GDP. At end-December, total external state debt equaled approximately 76.5% of last year’s GDP.
Ukraine key macroeconomic data and forecasts, 2012-17
Ukraine historical data and Macro-Advisory Ltd proprietary forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, state budget, current account and currency.
Ukraine’s economy has now stabilized and is showing a slow but steady recovery. GDP is set to expand by 1.2% this year and by 2.5% next year. That follows a decline of almost 10% in 2015. One of the big success stories has been the large cut in headline inflation from over 43% at the end of last year to under 8% this summer. It is expected that the pace will pick up in the autumn and winter but it should stay close to the NBU’s target of 12% (+/-3%). This has allowed the NBU to cut its refinancing rate from 22% at the start of the year to 15% in mid-September.